Mindware: Tools for Smart Thinking
Mindware: Tools for Smart Thinking shows how our intuitive forms of reasoning can sometimes fail us, causing us to make serious errors of judgment. We don’t have clear ideas about how much evidence is necessary to come to a conclusion about many important questions. We don’t fully understand how to distinguish between causal relations and mere correlation. When we choose among actions that are likely to benefit us, we are risk-averse and consequently gain less than we might; when we must choose between actions that are likely to harm us, we are risk-seeking and consequently often lose more than we should. We watch bad movies and eat bad meals because we mistakenly feel that this avoids wasting money. Employers choose the wrong employee much of the time because they weight a 30-minute interview heavily in the decision. We rely on intuition to make a judgment when a simple experiment could provide guidance to make a better judgment. Inferential procedures based on statistics and probability theory, micro-economic theory, experimental design, and logic can go a long ways toward eliminating errors like these. These topics are taught in college. This book teaches you how to use them in everyday life.